Osirak Redux

Much has been said about Israel’s intentions and capability to attack Iranian nuclear installations, especially in light of the recent flyover and alleged attacks which Israel conducted with impunity deep into Syrian airspace — local Syrian residents claimed to have heard 5 or more jets flying over Tal al-Abiad area along the Turkish-Syrian border, about 100 miles north of the Syrian city of Rakka towards the East of the country. Hizbullah has claimed Israel’s true purpose was to send a message to Iran (which is no more than speculation on its part, though it may yet be true.) What does Israel intend to do about the Iranian nuclear problem and what are the limits of its capabilities? Those of us not working for the world’s intelligence services can only try to put the pieces of the puzzle together. Whitney Raas and Austin Long of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology conducted the most sophisticated open source assessment to date, over a year ago, in their paper titled “Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities,” available in full to the public as a PDF file.

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